The Breakdown for Nov. 2

John McCain had another relatively good day in the polls today. Three states moved, two towards McCain and one towards Obama. PA and NM both tightened a bit, moving into the Weak Obama category with leads of 9 points and 8 points respectively. On the other side, AR moved to Weak McCain with a 9 point margin.

With just two days left, an eight-point or greater lead is pretty much insurmountable. Even if you give McCain a 5% bonus for the Bradley effect, McCain would lose 311 to 227. In reality, between pollsters not calling cell-phones, and the simple reality of the economy, I expect a reverse bradley effect in many states, so I doubt that it will be that close. And as noted yesterday, 311 is a big number since it means that McCain would need to take both PA and OH, plus at least one additional state (or some other combination of 43 EVs-- 42 to tie) to win.

Obama's EV count in states where he's polling over 50%: 307 EVs.

If the election were held today and...	Obama	McCain
...all McCain <5% went to Obama	406	132
...all Obama <5% went to McCain	311	227
Shift since yesterday:	+0	-0
Shift this week:	+10	+6

(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)

For the raw poll data and more details, see this day's page on Electoral-Vote.com: