The Breakdown for Sept. 25

A couple of changes today. Two polls in NH today, one shows McCain with a two point lead, another shows Obama with a six point lead. Taken together, they swap the state back to Obama, but it's still very close. ME and CO also strengthened in their strength of support for obama, both moving from the Barely column into the Weak column. At the same time, McCain's support in Montana is firming up, so it looks doubtful that Obama will do as well there as many had hoped.

If the election were held today and...	Obama	McCain
...all McCain <5%>	354	184
...all Obama <5%>	211	327
Shift since yesterday:	+0	-13
Shift this week:	0	-23

(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)