On the strength of an abundance of state and national polling, Barack Obama has retaken the lead in our Electoral College projection. Our model now forecasts him to win the election 61.2 percent of the time; it also gives him a slight, half-point advantage in the popular vote. Yesterday, Obama was projected to win the Electoral College just 45 percent of the time, so this is a rather dramatic move upward.Unfortunately, Nate doesn't provide a way to go back and look at the old charts (at least as far as I can find), but if you saw yesterday's chart, you can instantly tell what a huge shift this is. Also keep in mind that most of these new polls don't yet take fully into account the latest developments in the economy. We should see the full effect of these latest developments in the next few days.
Full details at fivethirtyeight.com
UPDATE: Just to clarify, this site uses the numbers from Electoral-Vote.com, which only uses state poll data. Fivethirtyeight.com uses a more complicated formula that also factors in national polls. I've called national polls irrelevant before, and I generally think that that is correct, but when properly analyzed, they do provide some extra data that the state polls don't necessarily provide.
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