| Obama | McCain | |
| ...all McCain <5% went to Obama: | 354 | 184 |
| ...all Obama <5% went to McCain: | 198 | 340 |
| Shift since yesterday: | +0 | +0 |
| Shift this week: | +32 | +2 |
(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
The Breakdown for Sept. 23
Today is a perfect example of the benefit of the chart and the flaw in "The Breakdown" that I use. If you just look at the numbers in the table, there were no changes since yesterday. But a glance at the chart shows that Obama is in a much stronger position today. Remember, The Breakdown shows the best case for each candidate, but not necessarily the most likely. If the election were held today, McCain could conceivably swing some or all of Obama's weak states away, but the opposite is much more likely. If anybody has suggestions for the numbers in the breakdown, I'd love to hear them.
(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)
(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)
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10 comments:
You need to change the sensitivity of the breakdown, using 3% and of 5%. The action is in the swing states, and your breakdown is missing the action. So you need 4 columns, not 2, which show the min/max with 5% sensitivity and min/max with 3% sensitivity. I think the basic problem is that you are counting 5% as a tie.
M. Swanson,
Not a bad idea, but unfortunately, I don't have the data available. I just use the data provided by Electoral-Vote.com, and they are currently only offering the three degrees of support.
Exactly tied on their site is defined as 3%.
I don't think so... At least that doesn't match with what I see on the site. For example, today he lists PA as exactly tied at 46-46%, and NH as Barely Obama at 48-47%. Anyway, I just use the data that's in the file here. As far as the chart itself is concerned, I do no interpretation or parsing of the data, just plot it onto the chart.
Perhaps you could include Tied and 5% ranges.
My goal here isn't to analyze or even breakdown every possible combination. I do all the site maintenance manually before I leave for work in the morning, so the more data presented, the more time it takes me. Since Electoral-Vote.com provides information on the ties and barely states, plus plenty of deeper analysis that I am not qualified to make, his site is a much better place to look first. The breakdown that I provide is only intended to show the range of possible outcomes.
I just reread your initial post, and you seem to be mis-reading the data at some point. Tie on this site (and on EV.com) is defined as an exact tie, for example 46%/46%. If the lead is between 1% and 4% it shows up in the light blue or red segment on the chart. The medium tone represents states that are between a 5% and 9% lead and the dark color represents a lead of 10% or more.
The numbers in the breakdown are a little different, and my rationale for using these numbers is explained in this post.
The way you formatted the Breakdown implies that there is a lot of noise in the less-than 5% categories (and we should disregard them). The election outcome is not likely to swing outside of that range. That's original, and you should keep it.
I have 2 suggestions. You could move the electoral-vote.com badge up to a higher location on the right column so it is visible near the Breakdown and the Chart. Then it will function more complementarily. We can see the thumbnail if we haven't already and jump there more easily!
Also, since alot of the time we really want to know first of all "who's ahead", I would think including the top line, the "score" of Obama vs McCain, in the Breakdown would be a good idea. The bottom line.
I don't know what the function of the breakdown is but let's say it's to represent the exact numbers which your chart is visibly showing roughly. If I were blind and some software were reading your breakdown to me, I'd want it to give the same info verbally as is there visually. I suppose it could report the hard, medium, and soft support totals for each candidate, but it would get longer.
One more thought: Have you considered reporting change/trend from one week ago or one month ago? That might be good or better to know than just the daily motion.
oops, sorry, weekly shift is already there!
Blues...
Thanks for the suggestions. I've made a few changes tonight. I took your advice and moved the EV.com badge to the top of the page. That was a great suggestion, since not only do you get to see the numbers, but you also get the mini map. I've also added a copy of the previous day's badge right next to it, so you can immediately see the change over the last two days (and if you have good eyes, you can see which states have changed).
I'll also add a copy of the badge to each days breakdown so you can scroll back and see the standing on earlier days as well. I need to manually save the badges locally, so I don't have them for any days before today, so for ane earlier days you'll have to see EV.com.
Good move on the badge. Thought you wouldn't do it because it pushes down the Key and Dates. However, the text surrounding those could still be haiku-ized a bit to squeeze it onto 1 screen, IMO. Map+Map+Key+Dates+textual elaboration underneath would be an uptweak since now your Dates have slipped off many viewers' screens. Mine anyway. (Altho I don't even like the dates. I'd'a maybe bolded/colored the dates' x-axis TEXT at most if it were me --but it's you:-)
Then you've found space to insert *yesterdays* mini-map badge, too! Now we're talking extra work, daily keystrokes. Your readers thank you! It keeps me from clicking around from one tab to another all the time. YES, WE(i) CAN actually see WI, MI, PA, MI, and NC trending in an Obama-ward direction even tho some of these states have about as many pixels as EVs. All the movement, which is INvisible in the simple score report and hard to see without flipping between ev.com maps, leaps out in your graph + the double-EV.C-badge, so that's good. Too bad daily badges are not cached on the site somewhere like the main map and cartograms are. e.g. http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Carto/Sep26-c.png
Enjoyed the WhatTheHIACDSA?APOTRM story link. We'll probably get a lot more of these _Financial Meltdown for Dummies_ stories. Need 'em. Waiting for the comic book version. Starring Johnny McCain himself.
Also appreciating the 2004 chart. Hmm. Much stronger Demo-power now.
Debate-wise, no, McCain didn't CRASH, but I think Obama WON, and accomplished his objectives better than McC did his.
Carry on!
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