| Obama | McCain | |
| ...all McCain <5% went to Obama: | 354 | 184 |
| ...all Obama <5% went to McCain: | 198 | 340 |
| Shift since yesterday: | +0 | +0 |
| Shift this week: | +32 | +2 |
(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)
I don't quite get it... You have a candidate who has lobbied hard for economic reform for more than a year at least, and who has a detailed plan to try to get us out of the current situation vs. a candidate whose only response is "we need a commission" and who still thinks that the deregulation that created this situation was a good idea, and who has multiple campaign staff members who have been receiving payments for lobbying for Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac as recently as this month. How can that second candidate be doing better in one of the most economically hard hit states in the country? Oh, right. His VP nom is pro-life and likes to shoot moose from airplanes. Makes perfect sense...
2 comments:
Ohio is a very diverse state, with a somewhat conservative background. A lot of voters, especially in the southern cities such as Cincinnati and Dayton, are overwhelmingly in support of John McCain and his candidacy. There has not been a lot of mainstream media discussion about the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac donations, but McCain definitely has a lot of support here because of his appeal to somewhat independent voters with conservative backgrounds. Obama clearly dominates in the northeastern regions of the state, in cities closer to the demographics of Columbus, Akron, and Cleveland, but the key will be who wins the Youngstown vote. If Obama can clearly become the champion of the lower class blue collar worker, then he should manage a small victory by the time election day rolls around. Ohio is simply a few points off of his national polling averages at the time, and could easily change if he gets a boost nationwide.
Thanks for the analysis, Jacob. I really do know that it's more complicated than the way that I stated it. It's just very frustrating watching the economy melt down, and watching people continue to support the party that led us to the problem.
You're right about Obama's chances in Ohio. I'm optimistic that the combination of his apparent underperformance in the polls (see this post), combined with his registration and GOTVefforts will make a big difference in close states like Ohio and Florida, but we'll see.
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