Monday, September 29, 2008
Florida is McCain's must win state.
Here's the one to watch on Election night... If Obama takes Florida, then McCain has virtually no realistic chance of winning the election. Using the simulator at 270towin.com, if you set FL to Obama but leave all other swing states unallocated, McCain only has a 2% chance of winning. Even if you give McCain MO, OH, VA, NC and IN and leave all other states unallocated, McCain only has a 16% chance of winning if Obama takes FL. It doesn't matter so much to Obama, though. If you give McCain FL, but leave the other states unallocated, Obama still has a 78% chance of winning (and that number increase rapidly as soon as you give Obama a few of the other states). Considering that fivethirtyeight.com currently has Obama winning Florida 59% of the time, If I were McCain I probably wouldn't leave the state before election day.
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Andrea Moro's site says that even if Obama loses Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia, he still has 66.9% chance of winning.
fivethirtyeight just went to 83%--McCain currently has a 17% chance of winning.
And that's before the Palin debate.
Ohio looks like it's almost as vital as Florida. If it goes to Obama, McCain only has a 3% chance of winning. If he gets Florida but not Ohio, he still only has a 6% chance.
By the way, your links in this post aren't working. They seem to be trying to take me to a post in your blog that doesn't exist.
I forgot to mention: I tried changing the map to match the one on Electoral-Vote.com, by making all the ones that are strong and weak Dem or GOP their respective colors, and leaving the "barely" states alone. With that setup, McCain only has a 3% chance of winning, and if Obama gets either Ohio or Florida, he'll have 270 or more. If Obama also wins Minnesota, which seems relatively likely since it's a borderline weak state which has gone to the Dems in 9 of the last 10 elections, then McCain's odds of winning drop to 1%, and Obama can win by getting Ohio, Missouri, Florida, Virginia, Indiana OR North Carolina, or by winning Colorado and either New Hampshie or Nevada.
Bio... Thanks for letting me know about the bad link. It's been fixed.
Yep... If you give Obama PA, MI, WI, & MN-- all the states that McCain is not polling well in in spite of their reputation as swing states (so far in the election cycle McCain has won 1 poll in MN, 0 in WI, and only a small handful in MI or PA)-- Obama has 260 Evs. There are a whole lot of other states that are in play, so the odds of him NOT winning the other 10 votes that are required are pretty slim (2% accirding to 270towin.com if none of the other swing states are allocated).
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