The Breakdown for Sept. 26

A huge day for Obama, but one that would have been totally missed if you only looked at the EV split. The top level numbers are unchanged from yesterday, but Obama's strength has increased in several key swing states, and McCain's strength has weakened in to key states where he has been expected to win. Specifically, PA, MI and WI have all moved from the Barely Obama column to the Weak Obama column, with a 5, 6, and 6 percent margin respectively, and Oregon moved from the Weak Obama column to the Strong Obama column. On the McCain side, NC and IN have moved to the Barely column, at a 2 and 3% margin, while WV has moved the opposite direction and is currently +6% McCain.

As of today, McCain's Post-Convention bounce appears to be over, and Obama has returned to virtually the same numbers that he had immediately before the conventions. If the election were held today, all Obama has to do is take any combination of 11 EVs from his or McCain's barely columns to win the election. It remains to be seen whether these numbers stabilize or not, but things are looking very good today.

UPDATE: If you're concerned with the reliability of any of these numbers, it's good to know that with the exception of MO, all of the key states that moved today have three or more polls from multiple companies that make up their number. That tends to suggest that the data is pretty reliable.

If the election were held today and...	Obama	McCain
...all McCain <5% went to Obama	375	163
...all Obama <5% went to McCain	259	279
Shift since yesterday:	+21	-48
Shift this week:	+21	-68

(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)