| Obama | McCain | |
| All Leads + All Opponent < 5% lead | 325 | 328 |
| > .1% lead | 268 | 270 |
| > 5% lead | 210 | 213 |
| > 10% lead | 140 | 126 |
Very interesting. We'll see what Obama's rumored new more aggressive campaigning style will do to the numbers.
Friday, September 12, 2008
McCain's Post Convention Surge Revisited
Well, clearly my previous smart-ass comments about McCain's surge were premature. McCain pulled into the lead in the raw numbers today for the first time since May 23. He's also gained enormously in the terms of the apparent strength of his support. Today, for the first time ever, it truly is a dead heat:
Very interesting. We'll see what Obama's rumored new more aggressive campaigning style will do to the numbers.
Very interesting. We'll see what Obama's rumored new more aggressive campaigning style will do to the numbers.
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3 comments:
That's a very nice graph, but I would suggest that you put the zero levels at top and bottom, so that 270 EVs is in the middle. That would make it easier to see who is ahead. Also, the perfect ties would be shown as a white space between the red and blue, which makes sense.
Today might be the first day that this race is tied, but that still might be bad news for the McCain campaign. Even though this is the best showing they have had in a long time, they are still within the realm of the convention bounce.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html
I agree Jacob. It's definitely gotten more interesting, but I'm not too worried yet. If things are this close come October first, then I'll start to be worried.
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