The Breakdown for Oct. 4

One of the numbers that I consider to be the most important is the number of states each candidate has polling for them at a 5% or greater margin (represented in the chart by the medium blue or red). By that measure, Barack Obama is polling better today than he has all year. With 264 EVs at better than 5% strength, he only needs to take an additional 6 EVs to win. By the same measure McCain needs to take 107 EVs to win.

New Hampshire is starting to look tough for McCain. Two new polls are each showing Obama with a 10% or greater lead, moving it from the Barely column into the Strong column. With New Hampshire's reputation, it still could switch back, but it would take some work. Washington has also firmed up, moving from the Weak to the Strong column. All the days other Polls were also in Obama's favor, but none resulted in any changes to the chart.

If the election were held today and...	Obama	McCain
...all McCain <5% went to Obama	375	163
...all Obama <5% went to McCain	264	274
Shift since yesterday:	+0	-0
Shift this week:	+0	-4

(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)