The Breakdown for Oct. 7

Wow... A very big day. For the first time ever, Obama is polling above 270 EVs in the +5 point category alone. And not just by a little bit, but by a 34 EV margin. What that means is that even if every state that currently supports Obama by less than a 5% margin voted for McCain, Obama would still win a decisive 304 EV victory.

As noted late yesterday, today's polling was pretty decisively in Obama's favor. CO and MO moved from Barely McCain to Barely (<+5) Obama, while FL and VA moved from barely Obama to Weak (>+5) Obama.

UPDATE: If you're wondering, yes, this was Obama's best day ever. You can see on the chart that he had one day that was almost as good back on June 19, but he only had a 344EV lead then. Interestingly, the map then was almost identical to todays, except NV and NC was backing McCain. Today NV is for Obama and NC is tied.

If the election were held today and...	Obama	McCain
...all McCain <5% went to Obama	375	163
...all Obama <5% went to McCain	304	234
Shift since yesterday:	+0	-40
Shift this week:	+0	-54

(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)

For the raw poll data and more details, see this day's page on Electoral-Vote.com: