Probably the most important change on the chart is that a new poll shows WV moving all the way from barely McCain (-8 on 9/24) to Weak Obama (+8) lead. I'm skeptical of any state moving 16 points in just about two weeks, but a lot has happened in the last two weeks. ARG's polls are erratic, but I doubt that it would be off by 8 points, so it is likley that Obama does hold at least a small lead in WV. WV is a small state, but it is one that McCain was expected to win.
The other important change is that NC has swung back towards McCain, at least according to Electoral-Vote.com. The only problem is that they don't list at least one poll that shows Obama with a significant lead. FiveThirtyEight.com shows a PPP poll from 10/5 that had Obama with a 5 point lead in NC, which should have moved NC into the Barely Obama days ago, and should still be outweighing the +3 poll for McCain from 10/6. The chart here always uses the data from Electoral-Vote.com, but when I see an anomoly like this, I'll try to point it out. You can mentally switch NC if you would like.
MO has moved from barely Obama to tied, due to two conflicting polls. The one leaning towards McCain is from ARG, and as noted earlier, ARG is erratic, so I wouldn't worry to much about this poll yet.
The other changes are a bit more routine, with MI moving from Weak to Strong Obama, and TX did the same but moving towards McCain. I think that's all of the changes, but with so much going on, I may have missed something.
UPDATE: Oops... I forgot to change the numbers in the chart. Fixed now.
| If the election were held today and... | Obama | McCain |
| ...all McCain <5% went to Obama | 380 | 158 |
| ...all Obama <5% went to McCain | 282 | 256 |
| Shift since yesterday: | +5 | -5 |
| Shift this week: | +5 | -22 |
(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)
For the raw poll data and more details, see this day's page on Electoral-Vote.com:
2 comments:
WSOC TV poll in NC?
That poll hasn't shown up in his numbers yet, though it probably will tomorrow. The poll that caused the shift is the 46-49 Survey USA poll reported on Oct 8. The shift didn't appear until today due to an older poll that just fell off the chart. If he showed that +5 PPP poll from the fifth, the state would be barely Obama. Even with that WSOC poll, I'm pretty sure NC would still be barely Obama if the +5 poll were included.
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