The Breakdown for Oct. 15 (Sort of)

I'm having some computer troubles that are preventing me from getting the site updated, so until these issues are resolved, I'm going to have to skip the normal updates. I will hopefully be able to get it fixed by tonight.

In the meantime, there were two big changes today both towards Obama. CO moved from the barely Obama category to the Weak Obama column, and WI moved from Weak to Strong. That mean the the magic number for Obama (if he wins all states currently polling +/- 5 points) remains at a 383-155 victory. If McCain were to take those same states, he would still lose 289-249.

UPDATE: Here's the full breakdown:

If the election were held today and...	Obama	McCain
...all McCain <5% went to Obama	383	155
...all Obama <5% went to McCain	289	249
Shift since yesterday:	+0	-9
Shift this week:	+8	-12

(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)

For the raw poll data and more details, see this day's page on Electoral-Vote.com: