So much happened yesterday that it's hard to know where to start, but I'll flip a coin and work west to east. That means that the first state up is MT which has moved from Barely McCain to tied. Next up is probably the biggest story of the day-- IN has moved from Barely McCain all the way to Weak Obama. Also moving to Weak Obama is OH, which is almost as big of a story. Finally FL moved from tied back to Barely Obama.
One noteworthy thing about today is that there is currently not a single state that is polling in the Barely McCain category. That's more then an interesting bit of trivia, I think that it means that McCain has finally reached his plateau (though not the direction that he would prefer). I don't expect any more states to move in Obama's direction before the election (this doesn't include ties, obviously). Come election day, there might be one or two more if Dem turnout is high enough, but I doubt that we'll see any big moves in the polls. We might see further weakening in a few states (and strengthening on Obama's side), but I wouldn't expect to see any more blue states on the map before election day.
| If the election were held today and... | Obama | McCain |
| ...all McCain <5% went to Obama | 381 | 157 |
| ...all Obama <5% went to McCain | 317 | 221 |
| Shift since yesterday: | +0 | -31 |
| Shift this week: | -2 | -31 |
(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)
For the raw poll data and more details, see this day's page on Electoral-Vote.com:
10 comments:
WV may still be in play.
I hope someone makes a printable state poll scorecard on which we can compare actual returns on election night with the day-before poll-based projections. I'll be going to the county Dem election night party and such a card would make good conversation between networks "calling" state results.
As always, I love to read your daily roundup.
Keep up the great work!
Ceiling is right. I tout you (and expand) here:
http://trueconservative.typepad.com/trueconservative/2008/10/mccains-steel-ceiling-who-loves-ya-baby.html
Anon,
Come election day, WV and SD both could every possibly still swing, and GA might be even more likely according to the latest polls. But personally I doubt that we'll see it on the map antime prior to the election. Come election day, though, it all comes down to the ground game, and that's where Obama is kicking butt. If Obama can get the turnout he expects, I could easily see these three states-- and possibly others as well-- flipping for Obama.
Note: I am not saying that the race won't tighten up in the meantime. I've predicted that all along, and it very well still could.
Wayne,
Thanks for the feedback. I really appreciate it!
Steve... See you were right. That map being broken up by population rather than EVs was useful after all.
I did some quick checking, and it looks like McCain's worst day in the >5% category was back on June 25th when he had 145 EVs above the 5% line (vs 157 today). That day had MT & ND still above the 5% line, but GA and AK below it. AK has firmed up for obvious reasons, but it's looking like GA may well be in play after all. Todays polls might well push GA into the Barely McCain field tomorrow. I still doubt that it will actually turn blue prior to the election, but it will be fun to watch come election day.
One thing to note is that Georgia has a Republican Secretary of State and votes electronically with no paper trail. It also looks like they are aggresively checking IDs of voters, though it seems that the requirements are not too bad. One concern I have is reflected in this sentence: "If information in these databases does not match information reported on the voter registration form, the applicant is asked to clarify their information". That doesn't make it clear as to whether someone can be disenfranchised solely for mismatched information, and I couldn't find anything on the website that further clarified the situation.
That ODT map is nice tho it has a short shelf life and I wouldn't pay money for it (DIY). It basically matches the makeup of the House of Reprehensibles, but one square should have equaled 400,000(?). Since it shows population, the size of Jesusland/Bushland/McCaintry is even smaller than on an electoral-vote-scaled map such as Wang's or Gott's and Colley's. Adaptable for RISK, too.
If Dems can compete in TX in the post-Bush era and continue to compete for AZ, GA, VA, NC, and Clinton's zone of AR+LA+TN+KY+WV, there are no states left for Republicans with more than 10 EV! Republicans would want to hold TX and FL in the future and move into the midwest or run a popular Californian Republican. Dems would like to run a Texan/Floridian/Clinton/Clark/redstater to reach into that untapped red vein.
It is interesting to see how soft McCain's support still was in the south on June 25. There is some past and future potential.
Anybody know any fact-based analyses of polling effects of the Powell endorsement, Wardrobe-gate, and other recent events (beat-myself-up-and-blame-it-on-a-person-matching-Barack-Obama's-description-gate)?
Low point of "Strong GOP": 71 EV on June 27, 28, 29
I just received a shocking vision of the future. Highly effective.
You can send a customized video to a suspected non-voter.
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