The Breakdown for Oct. 25

As noted in the comments of yesterdays Breakdown, GA is tightening up, with only a two point lead for McCain today. Maybe my comment yesterday that John McCain had hit his floor was premature. One thing to note is that Georgia has a Republican Secretary of State and votes electronically with no paper trail, so the possibility of voter suppression or election fraud is greater here than in some other states. It looks like they are aggresively checking IDs of voters, though it seems that the requirements are not too onerous. One concern I have is reflected in this sentence: "If information in these databases does not match information reported on the voter registration form, the applicant is asked to clarify their information". That doesn't make it clear as to whether someone can be disenfranchised solely for mismatched information, and I couldn't find anything on the website that further clarified the situation.

BTW, today marks the high point for all year for Obama in the Breakdown. Today's number of 396 EVs if all of McCain's <5 point states switched to Obama beats his previous record of 393 set on June 25th. Both yesterday and today are tied for his best simple EV total of 375.

If the election were held today and...	Obama	McCain
...all McCain <5% went to Obama	396	142
...all Obama <5% went to McCain	317	221
Shift since yesterday:	+15	-31
Shift this week:	+13	-31

(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)

For the raw poll data and more details, see this day's page on Electoral-Vote.com: