VA moved the other direction a bit, moving from Weak to Barely Obama. VA's polling has been all over the board recently, but one thing has been consistent: Obama is ahead. VA hasn't voted for a democrat since 1964, and even then Johnson's margin of victory was tiny in comparison to his margin in other states. If Obama pulls of a victory in VA, as now looks likely, it will be almost as historic event as his election in general.
| If the election were held today and... | Obama | McCain |
| ...all McCain <5% went to Obama | 383 | 155 |
| ...all Obama <5% went to McCain | 280 | 258 |
| Shift since yesterday: | +3 | -0 |
| Shift this week: | +8 | -18 |
(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)
For the raw poll data and more details, see this day's page on Electoral-Vote.com:
9 comments:
I voted. If I am hit by a truck before November 4, at least my vote will count.
There was a long line at the voting room which is located in a boutique shopping center called "The Factory." The people behind me were voicing their concerns loudly about ACORN and one retiree said that he was thinking about not voting, but decided to come out and cast his vote against "socialism." If there were any Democrats in line, they were very quiet. I bit my lip, too.
Diogenes--It sounds like a rather UNenthusiastic crowd. You shouldn't have worn your SOCIALISTS FOR OBAMA T-shirt with ACORN across the back, though. You were lucky to get away with just snide remarks, but this was a sacred space after all, a shopping center.
Wondering if the mall scene resembled Dawn of the Dead? Must…eat…Ayers…brains. Moose…mad cow…
I hope your vote is counted. Did you vote on a Diebold touchscreen, marksheet, or machine with little levers?(or are they illegal now?)
For what it's worth, if you believe the regression lines in the state graphs at e-v.c, 5 of the 8 states neighboring Tenn could go for Obama. My maximally optimystic map hits a wall around 398.
Blues: He get's to 409 if you switch IN, which is far more likely to go to Obama than GA. 538 actually is predicting IN will go to Obama at this point, but GA is still pretty solidly behind McCain.
Diogenes: Congrats on making it through the ordeal. It sounds scary.
The good news is TN will go to the Dems, at least according to nutjob pundit Dick Morris. I don't quite buy it, but who knows (and oddly, he also has IN going to McCain).
The other good news is the early polling seems to be going decisively towards Obama. They don't report numbers for TN, he's doing well in some neighboring states.
Damn... The more I look at that Dick Morris map, the more shocking it is. According to his calculations, McCain "can be certain of carrying just eight states with a combined total of only 36 electoral votes". Obama has 355 solid votes by the same measure.
I don't really buy it, bur it's shocking. The only thing I can figure is that they're trying to set up an expectations game so when they lose they can say "See, at least we didn't lose Arkansas!".
Dick Morris is full of crap. Look at what he said about ACORN and Obama here and here.
Oh, absolutely. Dick Morris is totally full of crap, which is why I called him a nutjob. But when even he says that John McCain has virtually no possible path to the presidency, you know things are bad.
409 - I like it. Isn't there even a Beach Boys song to sing along with it?
I'd forgotten that I had seen Indiana shining blue on 538's map.
One other high-end goal is beating Bill Clinton. I think they need to be put in the past.
Scenarios where McCain wins are harder to construct than the "409" scenario.
I looked at Dick Morris's map for about 2 seconds. I thought maybe it was really by Chuck Norris. What happened? It looks like he is using a completely different metric like Obama staff/volunteers divided by the square root of barnyard animals per capita or something equally exotic.
There has been progress. He may have been a cutting edge campaign strategist (?) in the 90s but now he seems more clueless than the average reader of 538, e-v.c, evstrength, etc. Like the Clintons, a relic of the 90s growing a little long in the tooth.
According to 538's simulations, Obama is taking 375+ EVs more than half of the time now--53.6% of the time specifically. Clinton took 370 in 1992 and 379 in 1996, so beating Clinton is well within the realm of possibility. It's also important to remember that Perot was a factor in both of those races. Without Perot, Bush would have done better and might have even won.
I completely agree that the Morris map is not likely. AR, TN and ev AZ will go to Obama but IN won't? Seems quite unlikely. You're probably right... Barnyard animals almost certainly were involved someplace... Possibly as a sacrifice? But I thought it was interesting that someone who is so in the pocket of the right would so blatantly show that McCain really can't win without a miracle. At this point, I'm not even convinced a miracle could do it.
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