| If the election were held today and... | Obama | McCain |
| ...all McCain <5% went to Obama | 386 | 152 |
| ...all Obama <5% went to McCain | 286 | 252 |
| Shift since yesterday: | +0 | +0 |
| Shift this week: | +3 | -6 |
Today's Numbers: | Yesterday's Numbers: |
The chart at the left shows the distribution of electoral votes based on statewide polls. The colors represent the gap in the poll. The darker the color, the larger the gap. 50% +1 or 270 Electoral votes are needed to win, out of a possible 538.
This site is really designed to be used along with Electoral-Vote.com. I provide one useful way to interpret the data, but without the information that is provided at that site, you won't get as much use from this chart.
For a complete explanation of the methodology used, see the Electoral-Vote.com polling FAQ. The raw data used to generate the chart is also available there. Please note that other than using the data that they make available, this site is not affiliated with Electoral-vote.com
2 comments:
is there an 8 day lag in state poll results, as this recent analysis suggests?
Interesting analysis. Polls do seem to run several days behind events-- about eight days seems right.
But that analysis seems to gloss over one key point: What event are the polls trailing? While McCain is clearly doing better in the last week, he's not exactly doing great. All he has been running on is Joe the Plumber and false charges that Obama is somehow a socialist. While normally his bizarre attacks on Obama's "spread the wealth" comment might get some traction, I can't imagine that they'll do to well just weeks after a 700 billion dollar corporate bailout. People are tired of wealth only being shared in one direction, and they want it shared their way for once.
Also note that even if you give McCain that extra week to make up the extra points, he still has to gain .38 points per day. That's 50% faster then Obama did over his best month, and that was with everything working in Obama's favor. In this case, the deck is very much stacked against McCain, and he has no forthcoming national events to use to his benefit, and the voters are pretty familiar with both the candidates at this point. His attacks haven't worked, so what else can he do to make up that kind of ground?
I just don't see it happening. If Obama loses this election, it won't be because McCain won it. It will be because the election was stolen. I just don't see any other way he can possibly pull it out at this late in the game.
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