Lots of movement in all directions today, though it was generally in Obama's favor. The most significant change is probably that NC has moved back into the tied category, from Barely McCain. With the advantages that Dems will likely have on turnout, ties will probably tend to go to Obama.
The other big change today is that VA has moved back into the Weak Obama (>5 point lead) category. At the same time, MO has moved from Weak to Barely Obama. New Mexico has also moved back into the Strong Obama category from weak.
Finally, WV has moved back to Barely McCain from Weak Obama. This is not entirely surprising since the last poll showed a 16 point swing in two weeks (See Oct. 10). That seemed unlikely, so I'm not surprised that it has swung back the other way
As an aside, one of the numbers that I have in my spreadsheet that I don't normally publish is the "margin of leaners". Take all the states that are leaning towards Obama, then subtract all the states that are leaning towards McCain. Ties are ignored. Today, Obama has his largest lead ever in that metric, a lead of 181 votes. (Of course, this is the same as just taking Obama's top-level number at EV.com and subtracting McCain's top-level number).
| If the election were held today and... | Obama | McCain |
| ...all McCain <5% went to Obama | 383 | 155 |
| ...all Obama <5% went to McCain | 286 | 252 |
| Shift since yesterday: | +0 | 3 |
| Shift this week: | +8 | -9 |
(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)
For the raw poll data and more details, see this day's page on Electoral-Vote.com:
1 comment:
Quoted from a Op/Ed column in the Canadian Press:
There goes another 2%, you Republican bigots. The Republican Camp's campaign about the Ayers-association is another coded racist gambit. But Obama knocked that one out of the ballpark last night when McCain foolishly brought it up: "Let's get the record straight," said Obama. "Bill Ayers is a Professor of education in Illinois. Years ago, when I was eight, he engineered a despicable act."
Ayres decades later is involved in activities that are funded by a man who was a major financial supporter of Ronald Reagan's and endorsed by the University of Chicago, Northwestern University and the very Republican Chicago Tribune.
So there you have it: A classy brilliant young man whose team includes Paul Volcker and Warren Buffett versus a rude, disrespectful ex-military man who wants his "base" to think Obama is an Arab terrorist.
McCain and his candidate-lite will be crushed.
Amen.
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