The other two changes today are that both MN and ME have moved from the Weak Obama to the Strong Obama category. I don't think that either of these states were ever truly in play, so this isn't that big of news, but it's nice nonetheless. The most siginificant meaning of this change is that it puts Obama at 264 EVs in his strong category alone. If he can get even one other state to move into that category, then he would have the full 270 EVs in states where he has a 10% lead in the polls. Either CO or VA could move that direction.
One thing that I noticed yesterday... VA is the closest thing to a true swing state in this year's election. Obama doesn't need to win it to win the election, but McCain absolutely does (and every other swing state). VA's polls close early, and with Obama's big lead in the polls there, it's quite possible that he will win VA by a big enough lead that it can be called immediately or close to it. If that happens, than we could all but know the winner of the election by a few minutes after 7pm EST (4pm PST).
It's even conceivable that IN could steal VA's thunder and decide things as early as 6pm EST, though that's probably unlikely since part of the state doesn't close until an hour later and IN is likely to be close. Either of these scenarios will kind of ruin the suspense of Election night, but I wouldn't complain about that spoiler! Remember though, don't take that as an excuse not to vote. If nothing else, remember all the downticket races!
(If you're curious, here's a list of every state's poll closing time for 2008.)
Update: Oops, I almost forgot. Today is both a new record high in Obama's EV count according to Electoral-Vote.com, and a new record for the margin between Obama and McCain (currently 193 EVs)!
| If the election were held today and... | Obama | McCain |
| ...all McCain <5% went to Obama | 383 | 155 |
| ...all Obama <5% went to McCain | 286 | 252 |
| Shift since yesterday: | +0 | +0 |
| Shift this week: | +3 | -4 |
(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)
For the raw poll data and more details, see this day's page on Electoral-Vote.com:
7 comments:
Is there an accepted definition for a landslide victory?
Not sure if there is a universal definition, but the definition that Nate at FiveThirtyEight.com uses is 375 EVs. He currently estimates that as a 32.75% chance.
I hope we will see a Colin Powell effect. Video
good link diogenes. Also there, one i call Barack Battles the Pink Robots
Robocalls appear as swarms of buzzing insects.
It seems ColinPowell could affect the swing voters, undecideds, and Republicans. It will be interesting to see the polling in the coming days.
I don't agree with the 7pm idea. I think the networks will stretch it through prime-time at least but you'll know before midnight. They got burned so bad in 2000 they will stay away from projecting the outcome again and wait for hard results to tip the state unquestionably. They want to keep viewers (in suspense) and may focus on other questions like HOW MANY EVs and the Senate races etc. Viewers may add it up themselves and tune out though (don't you think?), possibly causing an Obama baby boom 9 months from Nov 4.
I hope not to know by 7PM... That would be pretty bad for turnout , especially on the West coast, which could be very significant for downticket races.
The good news is that only those of us who are really following things will know that VA is the lynchpin. You're right, the networks probably won't formally call the race for Obama until later in the evening, but if the numbers in VA are particularly lopsided those of us who closely follow the election will know.
I see what you mean. Sorry I projected something else into it. Yes, with one or two swing state results or one reddish state breaking for Obama we could rest easy shortly after 7pm EST. Then stay tuned for the gory/glorious details in each state race.
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