| If the election were held today and... | Obama | McCain |
| ...all McCain <5% went to Obama | 375 | 163 |
| ...all Obama <5% went to McCain | 260 | 278 |
| Shift since yesterday: | +0 | -10 |
| Shift this week: | +21 | -49 |
(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)
Thursday, October 2, 2008
The Breakdown for Oct. 2
Lot's of movement today, all in Obama's favor. FL and OH moved from tied into the Barely Obama column, NV switched from Barely McCain to Barely Obama and MN moves from Barely Obama to Strong Obama. TX and MS are both still on McCain's side, but they have tightened up considerably, moving into the Weak McCain column.
(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)
(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)
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7 comments:
I know I have seen Nate Silver say this before on his site, but do you personally think that this is the high point of the Obama campaign thus far? Do you think this even makes sense? What do you feel about the McCain press release about the "illogical" polls from Florida?
Certainly it does not seem very plausible that on Election Day he garners 320+ electoral votes... Does it?
Oh, oh. Palin stayed on her feet.
Yep, Palin actually did OK... I wouldn't call her performance "Presidential" by a long shot, but she didn't screw up TOO badly. I'll be interested in seeing what the polls do over the next few days. I think that they managed to avoid a total poll meltdown, but I can't imagine that her performance will win anyone over either. I suspect that the net effect of the entire thing was virtually nothing one way or the other.
Jacob-
Yes, I do believe that 320+ is well within the realm of possibility. In fact if you look at the state of the world today, the question that I've been asking for months is why isn't Barack routinely pulling in 375+ EVs? Every poll that is taken shows nearly every indicator as favoring the Democrats, so why hasn't that support been showing up in actual support of the candidate? My personal theory has always been fear. I don't really believe that Racism will be a big factor in the election*, but that doesn't mean that Americans aren't leary of change. Barack Obama needed to convince Americans that he was the right leader for our times, and so far he seems to be doing a great job of making his case. We'll see what happens in the end, but I believe that 320 or even more is well within the realm of possibility, maybe even likely.
* Certainly there are many Americans who are racist, but I think that the actual effect that they will have on the polls is negligible. They will tend to vote for the Republicans regardless of who the candidate is. Add in the increased voter turnout in the African American community, and I suspect that the actual number of lost votes due to Obama's race will not be a major factor. See also http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/on-race-based-voting.html for more analysis on this issue.
BTW, in the simulations that they run at 538.com, the most likely single scenario is right around 335 EVs, and Obama is getting 375+ EVs in more than 24% of the outcomes. We'll see what happens over the next 4 and a half weeks, but things are looking good for now.
Clinton got 370 in '92 and 379 in '96. All of these recent estimates have Obama below that level. Conditions were similar then. It COULD be a minor landslide (if present trends continue…).
Beautiful movement in the day's chart. Perhaps it's the best day yet.
It's nice to see the hard Republican red states turning pink. Maybe without a Bush on the ticket Texas will become California blue or a swing state like Florida.
You make a good case (for Obamoptimism) and what you say is likely to pass, Junkie. In defense of the opposing argument, 538 shows the candidates at 51.2% and 47.2%. How much movement in the polls is usually seen in the last 4 weeks? If the polls usually move a few %ile in a Republican direction or the race usually narrows, that may occur this year as well. A negative reaction to a Democratic bail-out of Wall Street could be a trigger, for example. We usually see the daily tracking polls move up or down a %ile or two DAILY, so a drift of a few % either direction is likely. Do you remember 2000? Wasn't Gore ahead by 8% on election eve?
:-(
Furthermore, if a movement in the national polls is concentrated in a few key states like PA, OH, FL, CO, McCain's chances improve greatly.
:-(
Finally, there are factors like voter suppression, voter purges, Diebold technology, Supreme Court coup d'Etat, and last minute Rovean tactics to be considered.
:-(
I won't feel safe until I see Dick Cheney and team leaving the building. I am worried that they could make something happen even after the election and before Obama is sworn in.
I hope you are right, but I am keeping pessimism alive to avoid a harsh post-electoral psychological adjustment.
Keep the slanted posts coming. ;-)
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