The McCain campaign lately is focusing nearly all it's resources on the state of PA. I've commented a couple of times on the apparent futility of that course, though I'll admit I really don't see any other course for them to take. But looking back over this months polls, suddenly that course seems even less likely to work then it did before. PA is currently polling with an 11 point lead for Obama, but even more importantly Obama is the choice of 52% of the people in the 10 polls that EV.com uses for their number. In fact, looking back over all the polling data that FiveThirtyEight.com shows, Obama has only polled under 50% in PA in one poll all month. With Obama polling above 50%, McCain can't just swing undecideds, he must actively steal people who say that they intend to vote for Obama. That's not impossible, but it's much harder to do.
Obama's EV count in states where he's polling over 50%: 307 EVs.
| If the election were held today and... | Obama | McCain |
| ...all McCain <5% went to Obama | 396 | 142 |
| ...all Obama <5% went to McCain | 311 | 227 |
| Shift since yesterday: | -0 | -5 |
| Shift this week: | +15 | -25 |
(See this post for an explanation of these numbers.)
For the raw poll data and more details, see this day's page on Electoral-Vote.com:
1 comment:
Two steps forward, three steps back for John McC!
He's hitting +2% again --and hitting the Panic Button in AZ as well, siccin' the robo-callers on the poor voters. That should really turn Arizona against him! Great way to use those limited funds on a face-saving op in your home state. Ride 'em cowboy!
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